Week 5 FanDuel & DraftKings Cash Game Locks
For those unfamiliar with the term “cash game”, it refers to the head to head or 50/50 contest type. The best strategy for cash games is to target safe players, and avoid guys who can bust. You only need to beat 50% of the competition in order to win money, so players with a low floor and high ceiling such as D Jax, Winston, and Drake are the archetype you must avoid. For cash games, you need to start players who are a lock to hit at least 2X their price, thus giving you a safe floor. For example, if Keenan Allen costs $8,000 on DraftKings, he would need to produce 16 fantasy points or more in order to exceed the 2X value on his $8,000 price tag. With all that in mind, here are my cash game locks for both FanDuel and
RB - David Johnson, $6,800
Through week four of the NFL season, we can finally start to see real trends in the game, due to a 1/4 of the season sample size. These consistencies are a cash game player’s dream, as there is less guess work in DFS, and more predictability. Among the most consistent trends in the NFL is the Bengals inability to defend the run. Through 4 weeks, the Bengals rank 2nd in fantasy points given up to the RB, behind only the Miami Dolphins. David Johnson is a talented player who is involved in the passing game and has a nose for the end zone. Priced at $6,800 which I believe is his floor, DJ will vastly outperform his price tag.
WR - Larry Fitzgerald, $5,800
With Christian Kirk’s injury keeping him out of the game this Sunday, look for Larry Legend to receive an increased target share in his absence. Averaging 13.4 FD points per game, Larry is a safe bet to outperform his perceived value. The Cardinals still play at the fastest pace in football, which mean both passing volume and target share will be on the side of Fitzgerald in this one.
TE - Jimmy Graham, $5,500
Last week’s injury to Davante Adams resulted in a massive uptick in usage to Jimmy Graham. Adams still hasn’t been ruled out of Sunday’s contest while this article is being posted, however if Adams does suit up for the game I would highly recommend you pivot away from Graham. Graham lead the packers in receptions, yards, and red-zone looks with Adams out of the lineup. It seems Rodgers doesn’t fully want to lean on youngsters Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling with Adams out, and prefers the tried and true veteran in Graham to be his replacement go-to target.
RB - Derrick Henry, $6,000
In what is perhaps the perfect game script for Henry, his $6,000 price tag is criminal to say the least. The Bills have an absolutely elite pass defense, yet their run defense is completely beatable. It’s almost like they invite opposing teams to try to beat them with the run, which in turn makes for close games due to the fact running the ball bleeds the clock, and creates long times of possession. These types of game scripts is where Henry thrives, as he is not often used in the passing game. Henry will be fed the rock early and often.
WR - Michael Thomas, $6,600
In a post Drew Brees New Orleans team, Thomas’s ceiling isn’t as high as it used to be, yet his floor remains rock solid. Having never scored under 16.4 DK points on the season. Thomas’s low price is certainly something you should take advantage of in cash games.
Dual Site Locks
QB - Carson Wentz, FD - $7,800, DK - $6,100
We should all start seeing Carson Wentz as an auto lock, as he is the only QB in Fantasy to be in the weekly top 10 in each of the first four weeks of the season. Even in a game where RB Jordan Howard went off for 3 touchdowns, Wentz still found a way to be fantasy relevant by tossing 3 TDS of his own, leaving fantasy owners content with his performance. Taking on a defeated Jets team at home, Wentz will likely continue his consistent QB 1 play.