Undervalued and Overvalued FanDuel & DraftKings Plays : Week 1
QB- Russel Wilson,
As the 3rd most expensive QB on FanDuel, Russel Wilson is the clear most overvalued QB on the slate. Seattle will be able to control the game against the putrid Bengals with their elite run game and stalwart Home defense. In turn, Wilson’s pass attempts could be at a season low in week 1, therefore limiting his chance to exceed value as the 3rd most expensive QB.
QB - Matt Ryan, $8,000
as the 4th most expensive QB on the slate, Ryan faces an elite pass defense on the road in Minnesota. There’s not much analysis here as it’s a bad matchup away from home, and with an $8,000 price, there are clearly less expensive players on the slate that make much more sense.
RB - Saquon Barkley, $9,200
What? Saquon is overvalued? Yes. Although Saquon is most likely going to have a great game against Dallas, his site high $9,200 price tag is too much to pay up for. When someone is priced this high, they better be the absolute, clear best player at their position the corresponding week, and I don’t think that is the case here with Saquon.
RB - Marlon Mack, $6,900
Marlon Mack thrived last year in positive game scripts...with Andrew Luck. In a week 1 road matchup against the Chargers strong defense, the Colts are likely to play from behind, thus Mack will not be in a position to grind the game out with his 1-2 down skill set.
WR- Julio Jones, $8,500
As elite as Julio is, FanDuel pricing him as the #1 most expensive WR on the slate is baffling. Just like aforementioned Matt Ryan, Julio is playing against Minnesota’s elite passing defense on the road. Julio should finish with decent numbers in this game, but in order to win money, “decent” is not enough if you are the highest priced player on the slate at your respective position.
TE - Eric Ebron, $5,900
We know Luck loved Ebron, but does Brissett? We don’t know yet, and I’m not willing to find out in week 1 against a tough Charger’s defense. In 2017, Brissett loved TE Jack Doyle, whim is still on the team this year. It’s possible Ebron comes down with a TD this game, but I’d look for better options here that are priced higher and lower.
QB - Jameis Winston, $7,500
Winston is in a smash spot here at home against San Francisco’s bottom 1/3 defense, and as the 9th highest priced QB I can’t see any reason not to roll him out. With a defense just as putrid as the run game, Tampa Bay will be forced to throw the ball early and often to keep pace with San Francisco. Winston is my favorite QB on FanDuel this week.
RB - Todd Gurley, $7,600
The fact that Gurley is the 8th most expensive RB with an affordable $7,600 salary is just disrespectful. If you are worried about his arthritic knee, take comfort in the fact that this is week 1. Gurley is as fresh as he will be this season, and could see a season high in touches here against Carolina, as his trainer stated on Thursady that Gurley will not be on a snap count or restriction. If you are scared to roll him out in cash games, fine. But plug him in to a GPP game as has the potential to go bananas.
RB - Dalvin Cook, $7,400
Dalvin Cook is in a smash spot here, and is my favorite to be the #1 RB week 1. Priced as the 10th most expensive RB, Cook is an absolute lock for every team you enter in a contest this week. He faces a Falcon’s team whom over the past few years allows the most receptions a game to Running Backs. Cook is an elite pass catcher, so this matchup makes all the more sense.
RB - Leonard Fournette, $7,200
If you like Running Backs, FanDuel is the place to play this week. Fournette is undervalued at home, against a Chiefs bottom 3 run defense. When healthy, Fournette has one of the highest guarantees for volume in the league. At just $7,200 Fournette is one of the best locks for cash games, and a great GPP play as well.
WR - Dede Westbrook, $5,900
As the 30th most expensive WR on the slate, Westbrook makes for one of the best cheap players to roster on the slate. In his lone preseason game, Foles targeted Westbrook with 7 of his 10 attempts, and found him in the redzone for a 10 yard TD. Westbrook looks to be the #1 pass catcher in this offense, and against a bad defense, he is a safe bet to outperform his price.
TE - Delanie Walker, $5,400
If you are looking for a cheap, safe, TE to give you 10 points while the rest of your lineup goes off, look no further than Walker. A year removed from his season ending injury, the target hog is looking to have a bounce back season. Playing against a historically bad team at defending Tight Ends in Cleveland, Walker is a safe plug and play at the most volatile position in fantasy football.
QB - Patrick Mahomes, $7,200
As the most expensive Quarterback by a whopping $600, Pat Mahomes is clearly overvalued as a week 1 DFS play on DraftKings. Playing against perhaps the best passing defense on the road, Mahomes will surely have better games, as this can very well be his worst game of the year. Pat Mahomes is the elite of the elite, and will most likely be a top 10 QB overall this week. But he is priced too high here in week 1 given the matchup.
RB - Ezekiel Elliot, $9,200
As the most expensive player on the platform, Zeke comes in at overvalued. If he had signed months ago with the Cowboys, participated in training camp, and played in pre season, Zeke would be a lock. But instead, it’s the latter. News came out via Jane Slater of NFL Network that Zeke is going to see between “20 and 25 reps”, however this may mean snaps and not touches. I’m not willing to touch Zeke as the most expensive player on the slate.
WR - Stefon Diggs, $6,7000
News on Wednesday broke stating that Diggs did not participate in team drills while the media was present during practice, due to a hamstring injury. This is new and an obvious thing to keep an eye on. Hamstring injuries are perhaps the worst injury to occur before the start of the season, as they tend to linger and can become fatal at any moment. As the 9th most expensive WR on the week, you’re really hoping Diggs can shake this injury with only a few days before football Sunday. Given the situation and price, he’s too risky of a play.
QB - Dak Prescott, $5,900
Dak takes on the Giants at home in a juicy week 1 matchup. With Ezekiel Elliot coming back in the lineup, Dak will surely have less attention on him and his receivers. Thus making it easier for him and the entire offense to roll over the putrid New York Defense.
QB - Carson Wentz, $5,700
This one is baffling. As the 13th highest priced QB, Wentz is a no brainer lock at the QB position on DraftKings. He gets a favorable matchup at home against a bad overall team in the Redskins. Wentz undoubtedly has the best receiving core of his career and a top 5 offensive line. The only fear here is they get out to an early lead, and run the ball for the majority of the game. With this low of a price tag however, he’s well worth putting in to at least your cash lineups.
RB - Justin Jackson, $4,000
The Melvin Gordon saga continues in to regular season, which leaves Ekeler and Jackson to take control of the Chargers backfield. Ekeler will get the majority of touches between the two, but Ekeler’s body is not capable of being a workhorse RB like Gordon is. Jackson will see around 40% of the touches between the two, and against Indy at home in a positive game script, Jackson will surely out perform his near site-minimum price tag.
WR - Cole Beasley, $3,600
On a site like DraftKings where they implement a full PPR scoring setting, Cole Beasley is a steal at the almost bare minimum price. Josh Allen has proven in the pre season that Beasley is going to command a healthy share of targets as his safety blanket. Beasley does not have a big 25+ point ceiling, however, in a cash lineup Beasley is an ideal cheap play who is guaranteed production.
TE - Evan Engram, $4,800
Thanks to a positive game script, Engram is primed to have a productive game against the Cowboy’s bottom 1/3 TE defense. News came out Wednesday from ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, that the Giants plan for Engram to have a massive role as the passing game is to be revolved around him and Barkley. TE pricing is surprisingly cheap on DraftKings week 1, but Engram stands out to me as a clear value above the rest.
Super Duds of The Week
WR - T.Y. Hilton, FD $7,700 - DK $6,600
T.Y Hilton is the worst priced player in all of DFS this week. Player prices were set long before Andrew Luck retired, thus making T.Y overvalued on both sites. As the 3rd most expensive WR on FanDuel and 10th on DraftKings, he is a clear player to avoid in a horrible matchup on the road against the Chargers.
Super Studs of The Week
RB- Chris Carson, FD $6,600 - DK $5,700
Chris Carson is my ultimate lock of the week. I won’t be playing a single tournament or cash game lineup without him. Everything negative I said about Russel Wilson earlier, is a positive for Chris Carson. Seattle will be in total control of this soft matchup against the Bengals, and will run the ball down their throat early and often. Carson has a 20 touch floor this week against a bottom 5 run defense. He is a top 5 RB this week and priced outside the top 15.
RB - Matt Breida, FD $5,400 - DK
Listed as the RB 1 on San Francisco’s depth chart earlier this week, Matt Breida is totally underpriced on both major DFS platforms. Coleman will surely be involved, and quite possibly receive more touches than Breida like originally speculated. However, by listing Breida as the #1 RB, we at least know that San Francisco is going to utilize Breida more than we all had thought this offseason. Breida torched this Bucs defense last year, and could very well have a big game yet again. If you are looking for a low priced guy with guaranteed volume, Breida is your guy.
WR - Marvin Jones Jr. FD $6,100 - DK $4,800
I’m not convinced Kenny Golladay is the #1 receiver in Detroit. Last year when healthy, Marvin Jones outproduced Golladay in terms of fantasy points scored. He plays on the road against a bad Cardinals defense, whom will be without their two best cornerbacks. Believe me or not when I say Jones is the 1, however you can’t ignore how juicy this matchup is and the potential for Jones to give us one of his few blow up games he seems to have every year.