• Lukas Kacer

Most Underrated Player Jacksonville Jaguars

The man with the mustache, Gardner Minshew, took the league by storm last season and is in line to do it again but his ADP has not caught up to his fantasy value. Minshew is currently going as the QB24 in high stakes leagues despite the craze that he started last year. Let's breakdown why Gardner Minshew is the most undervalued player on this rebuilding team that is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

2019 Stats (Per Game)

  • 12 games played (6-6)

  • 33.6 pass attempts/game

  • 233.6 passing yards/game

  • 1.50 TDs/game (4.5% TD Rate)

  • 4.79 rush attempts (67 total rush attempts)

  • 24.6 rush yards per game (344 total rushing yards)

Strength of Schedule

The Jaguars currently have the 20th toughest schedule based off of 2020 future win totals via sharpfootballstats.com and this is a good thing for Minshew in company as a tough schedule = tough opponents and tough opponents = negative game scripts and negative game scripts = fantasy points.

Tough Schedule = Negative Game Scripts = Fantasy Points

Shown above is the Jaguars strength of schedule based on Warren Sharp's pass efficiency D metric. The Jaguars are currently sitting at the 4th easiest schedule with what seems to be 4 tough games out of 17 with one of those games being the Vikings who lost all 3 starting corners from their nickel package last season.

Range of Outcomes

Based on RotoViz's range of outcomes app, Minshew has a promising range of outcomes for the 2020 season.

The most intriguing part is the high end projection in the range of outcomes of 18.3 points per game. Based on last season's QB finishes, if Minshew were to hit the 18.3 points per game on a 16 game sample he would have finished as QB7 and if he were to hit the median value of 15.6 on a 16 game sample then he would have finished as QB14 which is well above his current ADP.

New Offensive Coordinator: Jay Gruden

Jay Gruden comes over from Washington after being fired during the season last year and he is ready to turn this offense around. In his career, he averages a 57.77% pass rate which would have placed his offense right around league average, but each of his seasons is very up and down ranging from 67% to 54% based on team personnel and this season for Jacksonville it is looking like a pass heavy team.

The average fantasy finish of Gruden's quarterback is a finish of QB15 in 9 seasons with a wide range of outcomes with 3 top 5 seasons and two seasons ranking at a finish of QB32. Needless to say that Minshew has a wide range of outcomes as highlighted above.

Sneaky Rushing Upside

Last season, Minshew finished 5th in total rushing yards while only playing in 13 games. We see this trend every year with late round quarterbacks with rushing upside and how it positively effects their fantasy finish and this is another one of those cases.

Jacksonville is in total rebuild mode as they got rid of almost their whole defense and have players like Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue on the trade block, but we can use the rebuild as a means for fantasy points if you reference the formula up above.