Most Overrated Player: Todd Gurley
One player I am for sure not going to have on any of my teams is Todd Gurley.
Todd Gurley was an insanely talented and elite running back in 2017-2018, but his arthritic knee has me worried. Not to mention it is chronic, meaning it will not go away. It can also flair up at anytime, which worries me as then he can miss weeks and potentially cost fantasy players their season. For Gurley to be effective, he will have to be on a limited workload. Well, although Todd Gurley was the 15th ranked running back last year, his situation has gotten worse.
To start with, the Falcons offensive line is ranked 24th according to PFF. The Rams offensive line was ranked 31st last season, so Gurley was very touchdown dependent to produce big numbers in fantasy and to live up to his ADP.
His offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, loves to throw the ball. The Falcons were ranked first in pass attempts last season and 30th in rushing attempts. This discrepancy is worrying, for a running back already relying on touchdowns to produce big numbers. Not to mention, the Falcons defense is extremely weak so they will be playing from behind a lot.
Now, even if Gurley is efficient with his touches, he may not be the goal line back. We saw Qadree Ollison as the goal line back many times last season, culturing valuable point from Devonta Freeman, who finished the year with 2 touchdowns.
Now for a player going in the mid second, I would much rather pass up on Gurley for an elite wide receiver such as Kenny Golladay or Chris Godwin. I also see bigger upside in backs such as Jonathan Taylor or David Montgomery, who you can get much later in drafts.
If Gurley drops to the mid to late third round, I may be willing to take a shot on him, but with a chronic knee injury, I will most likely be staying away from Todd Gurley in 2020 fantasy football.