• Asher Jacobs

Most Overrated Player: Philadelphia Eagles

When we talk about the most overrated or overvalued player on the Eagles from a fantasy stand point, I think the easy answer is Zach Ertz. The 29 year old tight end is coming off of a season in which he posted 88 catches for 916 yards and 6 touchdowns. Not a bad stat line by any means, but when you're talking about investing the 35th overall pick of your fantasy drafts in this man, it's a bit of a pricy selection. When we start to look at which players are actually being selected after Ertz, we can see why he comes at a price that may not benefit your fantasy football team come December. Ertz is an elite tight end in the NFL, and in fantasy, but his asking price is simply too high. Let's get into why that is.

At the time this article is being written, Zach Ertz is being drafted ahead of Leonard Fournette, who was the RB7 last year. That is absurd. Sure, many believe that Fournette won't be able to replicate his production from last season, but even if he slides from mid RB1 territory to high RB2 territory, he is still a far more valuable pick than Ertz, as the average RB2 not only outscores the average top 5 tight end in full point PPR leagues, but god knows that running backs are far more valuable in fantasy football than tight ends are. Cooper Kupp, who finished last season as the WR4 is being drafted behind Ertz. Robert Woods is another top 15 receiver who is currently being selected after Ertz. With the amount of value that can be found late in the draft, the fact that running backs drop off so quickly, and that rounds 4-7 are the sweet spot for wide receivers, Ertz is not a value pick, and likely won't return your investment at his current price.

Another narrative, is the idea that Dallas Goedert may be coming for Ertz's spot. Goedert was more efficient in terms of catch percentage, touchdown percentage, average separation, and if Goedert had seen the amount of targets that Ertz had seen in 2019, he likely would have had a monster season. Based on NextGenStats, Goedert would have been a close second to Travis Kelce in terms of fantasy points for a tight end in 2019 if he had seen the target share that Ertz had. The move from Goedert to Ertz likely won't happen this season, but it's something to keep an eye on, and to add more uncertainty to a Zach Ertz selection with the 35th pick in your fantasy drafts.

Im staying far away from Zach Ertz at his current price tag, and I'm warning you that you should too. In order for Ertz to seriously return on his investment of the 35th overall pick, he would have to surpass his career high in receptions, which is already an NFL record, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Ertz is fading, and his draft price does not reflect that. I'd much rather have Goedert in 2019, as he has a safe floor, and he arguably has more upside than any other double digit round pick that is not a running back. You can get Goedert with the 178th pick in ESPN drafts at the moment. If Ertz somehow manages to break his own record for most single season catches by a tight end in NFL history, and returns the investment of the 35th overall pick, I will suffer with you, because I am grabbing Goedert in all of my leagues, and staying far away from Zach Ertz.