Most Overrated Player: Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are a tricky team to evaluate in terms of which player is the most overrated or overvalued. They're tricky because only three players on the team are selected in an average fantasy draft. Those three players are Josh Jacobs, who's average draft position is 11.6, Darren Waller, who's selected around 57.9, and Henry Ruggs IV, who goes mid 12th round, at 115. The only one of the three that I'm comfortable labeling as overvalued is Josh Jacobs. His price is a bit high at the moment, for a back who does not catch many passes, and hasn't proven that he can handle a large workload. We'll look into why his average price of the first pick in the second round is too steep for Josh Jacobs.
Did you know that over the last 3 seasons, only 1 running backs has finished top 10 in PPR formats while catching less than 35 passes? So by those standards, Jacobs would need to either almost double his reception total in 2019, from 20 to upwards of 35, or he would need to be able to sustain a much larger work load in terms of carries. The only running back who was able to make it happen in PPR leagues was Derrick Henry in 2019, and it took him leading the league in carries to do so. The Raiders have talked about getting Jacobs more involved in the passing game, but as fantasy football players, we can't believe it until we see it. We know that Jacobs possesses the ability to catch passes, but that has never been a role that belongs to the lead back in a John Gruden offense.
If Jacobs is going to be drafted anywhere from the early to mid second round, owners need him to finish as a top 10 running back, in order for him to pan out, and if Jacobs fails to reach 35 receptions, he must carry a sizable load in the rushing department. Jacobs had never carried the ball more than 120 times in any of his 3 seasons at Alabama, and in his rookie season with the Raiders, he jumped up to 242 carries. Jacobs wound up hurting his shoulder, and missing 3 games towards the end of the season. Many are worried that Jacobs won't be able to carry a work load that large, and even the Raiders have shown signs of worries in that department, spending 3 of their first 4 picks in the draft on receivers for Derek Carr.
To be clear, I am a huge believer in Jacobs. He should be able to sustain a long career in the league, as he has very little tread on his tires, but this season for fantasy football, his ADP of 11.6 in Sleeper Fantasy drafts, is too high of a price to pay for a back that does not catch enough passes, and hasn't proved that he can make up for the lack of receptions with an abundance of volume in the rushing department. Not to mention that Jacobs may struggle to find the end zone again in 2020, as the Raiders will likely be in the bottom half of the league in terms of scoring offense. Game script will also be working heavily against his style, as the Raiders will likely be playing from behind more often than not. Jacobs is a great talent, who will be a perennial star in the NFL, but his current price in fantasy drafts as of July of 2020 is too high for me. I would be comfortable drafting Jacobs around pick 18, not the first pick of the second round in my drafts.